SimplyCPA
CPA/BAR/Financial Forecasting, Budgeting & Valuation

Financial Forecasting, Budgeting & Valuation

Building forecasts, budget variance analysis, cost-volume-profit, and business valuation approaches.

Hard 1 hr 5 minArea I: Business Analysis

Cost-volume-profit

  • Contribution margin = Sales − Variable costs
  • Contribution margin ratio = CM ÷ Sales
  • Breakeven in units = Fixed costs ÷ CM per unit
  • Breakeven in dollars = Fixed costs ÷ CM ratio
  • Target profit units = (Fixed costs + Target profit) ÷ CM per unit
  • Margin of safety = Actual (or budgeted) sales − Breakeven sales

EXAMPLE: Price $50, variable cost $30, fixed costs $200,000. CM per unit = $20, CM ratio = 40%. Breakeven = 10,000 units, or $500,000 of sales. To earn $60,000 of profit: ($200,000 + $60,000) ÷ $20 = 13,000 units.

Variance analysis

VarianceFormula
Direct material price(Actual price − Standard price) × Actual quantity purchased
Direct material quantity(Actual quantity used − Standard quantity allowed) × Standard price
Direct labor rate(Actual rate − Standard rate) × Actual hours
Direct labor efficiency(Actual hours − Standard hours allowed) × Standard rate

Memory aid: the price/rate variance uses actual quantity; the quantity/efficiency variance uses standard price.

Valuation approaches

ApproachMethod
IncomeDiscounted cash flow — project free cash flows, discount at WACC, add terminal value
MarketMultiples of comparable companies or transactions (EV/EBITDA, P/E)
AssetAdjusted net asset value — useful for holding companies and liquidation scenarios

WACC = (E/V × Cost of equity) + (D/V × Cost of debt × (1 − tax rate)). The after-tax adjustment applies only to debt, because interest is tax-deductible while dividends are not.

EXAM TIP: In a DCF, the terminal value often represents the majority of total value, so small changes in the growth rate or discount rate move the answer dramatically. Perpetuity growth formula: TV = CFn+1 ÷ (WACC − g).